世界观｜2023生育率最高国家出炉，发达与生育间是否有必然联系？

2023-08-27 19:35:48来源：正观新闻

03:31

今年的生育率统计虽迟但到，由Statista、Wisevoter等调查统计网站数据陆续出炉。

(资料图)

Tough late, this year"s fertility statistics have been released by Statista, Wisevoter and other statistics survey websites.

生育率最高的 10 个国家中，有 9 个位于非洲。

Nine of the 10 countries with the highest fertility rates are in Africa.

在西非国家尼日尔，每名妇女接近生育 7 个孩子，是世界上生育率最高的国家。

Niger, a West African country, has the highest birth rate in the world. Here, each woman gives birth to nearly 7 children.

其次是中非国家安哥拉，每名妇女接近生育6个孩子。然后是刚果和马里，这一数字都接近于6。

Next is Angola in Central Africa, with nearly six children born by each woman. Thencomes Congo and Mali, both with numbers closer to six.

榜上有名的还有乍得、乌干达、索马里等，较多是第三世界国家。

Also on the list are Chad, Uganda, Somalia, and many other third world countries.

全球人口约为 70 亿，非洲大陆约占 11 亿。

The global population is about 7 billion, with the African continent accounting for about 1.1 billion.

如今，一个国家的人口大幅增长，要么与经济不景气、缺乏认识和预防措施有关，要么与恶劣的生活条件有关。

Nowadays, significant population growth in a country is either related to the poor economy, lack of awareness and prevention measures about physiology, or poor living conditions.

而每当人们聊起生育率，我们还会关注是否与国家的发达程度间有着若有似无的联系。

When we talk about fertility rates, we also focus on whether there is any correlation with the development of a country.

说起少子、老龄，人们会想起的一个标志性国家，就是日本。

Speaking of low fertility and aging populations, one symbolic country is Japan.

首先，日本的恬静生活、科技创新，以及自然美景、制造精品的匠心精神，让无数人神往。

First of all, Japan"s quiet life, technological innovation, natural beauty, and craftsmanship have attracted countless people.

据日本媒体《日本经济新闻》8月最新研究显示，日本“一生无子”的女性最多或达42%，男性50%。

According to the latest research of the Japanese media Nihon Keizai Shimbunin August, the number of Japanese women without children in their lifetime is up to 42% and that of men 50%.

这在发达国家中也是非常突出的水平。

This is also a very prominent level, even in developed countries.

人口学将50岁时没有孩子的女性视为“终身无孩”，日本女性3人中可能有1个人度过没有孩子的一生，日本男性可能每2人中就有1人没有孩子。

Demography considers a woman who has no kid at age 50 as a "no-kid for life," and one in three Japanese women and one in two Japanese men are likely to live a no-kid life.

日本一桥大学教授小盐隆士表示:“在养老金、医疗、护理和生活资源等所有领域，如何构筑即使没有家人也不会面临不利的安全网，（日本政府等）应该与财政一起尽快启动讨论”。

OSHIO Takashi, a professor at Hitotsubashi University, said, (The Japanese government and others) should start discussions with the finance ministry as soon as possible on how to build a safety net in all areas such as pensions, medical care, nursing care and living resources to prevent people from facing disadvantages even if they do not have families.

日本对于少子的对策，年年都有讨论次数呈递增趋势，创新的激励方式也在逐年增加，同样隐蔽的不生育惩罚措施也在进行中。（如没有亲人的话，很难租到房子）。

In Japan, the number of discussions on the countermeasures to low fertility is increasing every year, the innovative incentive methods about this part are also increasing year by year, and the same hidden punishment measures for no-kid people are also in progress. (If you don"t have relatives, it is difficult to rent an apartment in Japan).

在欧美的发达国家，不生孩子的人也越来越多。

In developed countries like European and American countries, more and more people are not having children.

而在欠发达国家，生子数仍居高位，那么可以达到世界人口数的平衡吗？答案是，2005年后世界人口数以约0.4%的速度逐年降低。

In less developed countries, birth rates still remain relatively high. Can this lead to a balance in the world"s population? The answer is that the world"s population has been shrinking by about 0.4% per year since 2005.

可以说，全世界范围内，年轻人结婚生子意愿都在下降。

All over the world, young people"s willingness to marry and have children is declining.

难道越发达、越富有的地方生育率越低吗？

Do developer and richer places tend to have lower fertility rates?

世界上最富有的人，特斯拉CEO马斯克鼓吹的就是多生孩子，他自己就有九个娃；

The richest man in the world, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, advocates having more children, and he has nine children.

而美媒也很早就开始鼓吹发达国家也许可以不必太担心生育率降低的问题，“只要国民变得更富裕一点，生育率自然会重新升高”。

The US media also began to advocate that developed countries may not have to worry too much about the problem of fertility reduction: "As long as people become richer, the fertility rate will naturally rise again."

这点合理吗？进化论预测社会地位和男性生育率成正相关；而英国杂志《经济学人》预测，人们越富有，其生育的倾向就会越小。

Is that reasonable? Evolution predicts a positive correlation between social status and male fertility. The Economist, a British magazine, predicts that the richer people are, the less inclined they are to have children.

这两者可以说是从生育的物质基础到精神需求给出了两则相反的预测结果。实则关于发达与生育率，两者只有一些间接的相关性，最直接的相关性应该是社会压力与意识觉醒。

These two can be said to give two opposite fertility predictions from the material basis and spiritual needs. In fact, there is only some indirect correlation between development and fertility. The most direct correlation should be social pressure and consciousness awakening.

关于是否拥有自己的孩子，人类的社会学、心理学、进化学、生殖医学，甚至工业化、城市化、女性权利中涉及的方面都有向内探索，

Regarding whether or not to have children, people delve inward to explore aspects related to human sociology, psychology, evolutionary biology, reproductive medicine, and even factors like industrialization, urbanization, and women"s rights.

结果可以说是有关但不是全部有关，人们想从根本上解决这个问题，却难以得到明确的方向。

The results can be said to be that these factors are related to birth rates, but they are not the only factors at play. People want to solve the problem at the root, but it is difficult to get a clear direction.

年轻人感慨真爱难寻、婚房（贷款）难背，中年人批判社会福利、基础建设，老年人怒骂：我在你这个年龄，娃都会打酱油了！

Young people sigh that true love is difficult to find, and the marriage house is challenging to afford. Middle-aged people criticize social welfare and infrastructure, and the elderly scold: When I was your age, my baby could buy soy sauce!

而我们在讨论生育率的时候，究竟是在讨论什么？

What exactly are we talking about when we explore fertility rates?

无论你的回答是个人的情感惨痛经历，还是社会对育儿的种种不公，都是合理的结果。

Whether your answer is a personal emotional tragedy or social injustice about parenting, they are all reasonable.

就像那位日本专家说的一样，也许大家都不生孩子的社会有天会来临，如果这样，就创造一个无后代也友好型社会，

Like the Japanese expert said, maybe one day we"ll have a society where nobody has children. If that were to occur, let"s hope we can create a society that is friendly towards those without descendants

让各种不同的选择都能有处安放，不让本就孤独的灵魂无处可依。

And can accept different choices, ensuring that lonely souls have somewhere to find solace.

（来源：正观新闻）

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